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I essentially want to create a timer program that is synchronized between my PC and iPhone. I am relatively new to programming and would say that I am familiar with Java and C, and have used python intermittently. I feel that I can create an executable to run on my PC in any of these languages without issues, but I don't even know where to start in regards to getting it to sync with something on my iPhone. Is this realistic, or am I being too ambitious? I would normally create this in C because that is what I am most comfortable with, but I am clueless when it comes to anything regarding iOS. I am willing to learn wherever necessary, but I really don't know the best way to attack this, or even if it's realistic. Any input or guidance would be much appreciated, and if this isn't feasible for me I'm willing to accept that. Thanks in advance!

Hello, I need help but I don’t know how to get it, I think it’s available to me but I can’t bring myself to make the call. I can’t talk to my parents because it’ll only upset them and they don’t know how to help either. I recently lost my best friend and the only person who loved me because I was an asshole and I couldn’t control my emotions well enough and I caused stress. I’m 22 and only just starting college now and won’t finish until I’m 26 or 27 while everyone around me is living and after that idk. I struggle to connect with anyone now, I’m so lost and I feel like even if I get help again it won’t work out. I’ve wasted years of my life but I don’t know what to do now, I’m close to losing all hope and just giving in to the pain. I think at the end of this week if I’m not able to change something that will be my breaking point. It’s all my fault and I wish I knew how to be stronger and I’m afraid but it just hurts so so so much. I don’t understand it. I was actually writhing in pain last night, it’s insanity. Thank you for listening

Statistically speaking, I know you have to be out there somewhere. Trouble is, I highly doubt you're looking for me. Maybe because you don't believe that I exist. Maybe because it's just too much effort, and you think the apps are lame or physically painful to slog through. Which, you know, is fair. But maybe one day you'll get bored and scroll through here on a whim... and maybe, just maybe, you'll realize that I'm talking to you. This is not a post directed at most people. I wish everyone all the best in finding whatever it is they're looking for on here -- a life partner, love (however fleeting), companionship, distraction. But I'm not posting here for those things. I'm posting on the off chance that you see this. So if all of the following resonates with you, message me. You are perfectly capable of coming across as a well-adjusted, highly sociable person who enjoys playful banter and delighting in the absurd. You aren't an anxious person (typically) to the point where it impacts your daily life. You are always kind to others, even when stressed or having a bad day. But as the years tick by, you find yourself making excuses to spend more time alone (or the urge to do so has started tugging on your mind), because the truth is that most people bore you. You are smart, but not a "nerd". You are fascinated by how things work. You listen to podcasts or audiobooks, and love the idea of doing this with a partner -- to learn together, to challenge each other to think about things in a new way. You'd happily spend Friday evenings curled up inside a magnificent blanket fort, excitedly talking about some cool new neuroscience research that just came out, or the latest awesome (ly terrifying) thing someone did with AI, or trying to work out why humans human. If you play video games you only do so infrequently, or as a way to socialize with a friend. You are not a "gamer". You don't follow any sports religiously, and think it's ridiculous to schedule your life (and emotional state 😂) around commercialized "teams". You are ambitious about your career, but also realize that career isn't everything. You are on the taller side, and are either athletic(-ish) or working toward being in decent shape. I'm 5'8 & 140 lbs, with a fun body dysmorphia complex that makes me think I'm significantly larger than I am (rawr! 😉). Of course there's more to a partnership than looks, but physical intimacy is extremely important too and you can't force attraction. That being said, there are plenty of things that don't phase me one bit. Stretch marks? Bring 'em on. Acne? Don't care. A little extra weight around the middle? Great. I'm not looking for perfection. Imperfections can be se*xy af. You are pro meow. Being in nature is your happy place, and you get a warm fuzzy feeling in your chest when you think about living out in the woods somewhere away from all the other monkeys (even if the reality of a life without same-day grocery delivery is unconscionable). You could see yourself working remotely (either now or as an actionable goal). You love the idea of spending your evenings/weekends at home, listening to podcasts while working on DIY projects with your partner, or having cozy reading time, or tinkering silly inventions into being, or writing songs/making music together, or running around in the woods remembering what it felt like to see the world through a lens of childlike wonder. Your humor leans witty/sarcastic/dry, with a slight dark & creepy twist. (But there is a line, and certain things like cruelty to animals you don't find funny at all). And though the occasional pun / dad joke might draw out a reluctant smirk, they're definitely not your thing.

I currently run a server for my group of friends (currently 4 of us) and we've been on The Island since the start.
We're currently getting to a point where we just have to farm towards the higher bosses, but it seems like particularly the alpha boss strategies often use a sort of glitch or dinos from other maps - especially considering the levels of dinos on The Island are lower. Not sure how to approach this or if we should even power through, or just set a plan to come back for them later on?
I'm wondering what type of path we should have through the DLC/free maps? But I have some concerns...
I was considering the path through the official DLC's before the free maps... But I am not sure if that would be the best idea, as I am concerned if the group will keep their interest starting over so many times. With so many official maps followed by the free maps... There just might be too much content to realistically plan through right now.
One other issue is this would require everyone to purchase the maps, though. So I'm not sure if we should focus on the free maps first. As I'd heard Fjordur has much of what the other maps offer. But I also saw people saying the free maps are more of a sandbox and better later on...
Also I am not sure on the rules I should allow - I am thinking I'd allow character transfers (so we don't have to level from scratch), but not allowing Dinos - at least until later on when we enjoy the natural progression through the maps.
Then there's progression... The progression path through The Island is fairly clear... Expand to the harder areas, work through the caves to the bosses. I'm not really sure the paths of progression through the other maps, and which might be the most fun to play through and explore in this sense. Are any of them outdated or are the forms of progression found better on other maps?
I know there's always the options of going back later to check out the other maps. Are there some that I should prioritize for a group like us?
Really trying to find a way to maximize the amount of fun we can have with the game. Any advice on coming up with a plan through what is available these days?

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I am hoping to find someone who will communicate with me via Ouija board if I die first 😇
I’ve been told I am super caring/sweet, genuine, have a nice voice, and give off chaotic energy (in a good way).
I sometimes cook, my lasagna is the greatest (no bias).
You could probably steal my heart if you like Korn, or if you compliment me and make me feel wanted.
I work in IT for an elementary school currently, it feels like very fulfilling work!
I really enjoy PC gaming, going on hikes, and finding unique places to go eat. Nowadays I’d say I’m 50/50 about going out or staying in, I enjoy a good balance of both.
I’ve been looking to go to the beach and go boogieboarding lately, but I’m just waiting on the temperatures to go up a bit more first.
I also need a ghost hunting partner! I want to hear all about your paranormal experiences.
My friends have said I am in my “self improvement arc” which I think is accurate lol. I lift weights every other day now and hike every weekend in the mornings. I need some help staying motivated! So far I’ve lost 25lbs over the year!
I’m looking for somebody who would be equal parts a best friend, just as much as she would be my romantic partner. I want to share many laughs and create happy memories doing anything and everything ☺️
If interested, please share your age and a photo of yourself in your message! Let’s get to know each other!

Hi so my girlfriend and I have been dating for almost and a year and since we got into the relationship it was understood that sex was off the table for us because she holds certain religious values and has had some past trauma regarding sex. I agreed with these terms but as the relationship has progressed I’ve been struggling with not having sex in our relationship. We do everything else outside of sex (oral sex) and it’s incredibly enjoyable and she enjoys it as well. She is one of the best people I have ever met and treats me the best anyone has ever treated me. This is also my first real girlfriend. She has been there for me through some really dark times and has stuck with me despite some struggles we have faced. Everything in me has told me that its worth the wait but I feel like there is something missing. We have talked about sex and its always a civilized conversation where we both try to understand our different values and how we hold sex to different standards. Has anyone else been in a similar experience? I want to know if its something thats really necessary for a relationship or if its something thats worth giving up for the sake of staying together. She didn’t necessarily say that she is waiting until marriage but she did mention that she isn’t ready and doesn’t think she will be any time soon? She’s the love of my life but it has been hard to deal with lately I could use some help.

So, for context, I have really bad separation/abandonment anxiety… once when I was about 19 (I’m 24 now), I was dating this girl long distance and everything was going great for about 4 months until one day she just vanished… no goodbye, no “let’s take a break” or “I need space”, just gone… I waited for a whole year, I thought something serious had happened… I’d text on holidays hoping she’d come back, but I didn’t for a year and at that point she told me she got back together with her ex…
Move to today and I’ve found the perfect woman. She’s beautiful, intelligent, funny, and she actively takes the time to spend time with me… it’s just that the more we talk (we’ve only been doing so for a little while) the more and more terrified I am she’s going to leave me… I try to let her know I’m still thinking about her when we can’t talk, by sending her sweet texts but then I start overthinking about if I’m annoying her… part of me wants to tell her about my issues and hope she understands but then that little voice in my head says it’d only make things worse. I really really like her, I just don’t know what to do.

Obviously limited to the update, but looking for an application that will help me with combing through medical research/opinions.

Looking for a fun bar for dancing in south Scottsdale. Most of my girlfriends are married and are not looking to be picked up but just want a night of getting down with da girls. Any suggestions of fun places?

It was at midnight exactly when everyone who was awake promptly passed out.
It wasn't an instant 'fall to the ground like a corpse' mass unconsciousness. It was just this sudden and intense state of exhaustion that made it impossible to stay awake.
Ours was a mining town, averaging around 70,000 population, and recently being hit by recession that made finding work a pain in the ass. And with the mine running dry, it was all we could do to keep afloat.
I was out for a stroll when the exhaustion hit, I was crossing the street when this oppressively heavy state of exhaustion just hit me. I panicked, of course, thinking that I was having a stroke or something, desperately trying to get to the other side of the crosswalk.
Then darkness.
It was the sunlight that woke me up, I squinted in the hellishly bright light and fumbled around for my sunglasses. Why I kept sunglasses on my person in the dead of night was because I was that kind of asshole who wanted to look cool. My mileage definitely varied on that front, but it was at least an attempt.
Still, when I managed to find them, confused as to why I was on hot asphalt, I put them on, only for them to immediately fall off. I was forced to open my eyes, and that's when I saw my hands.
At first, I thought it was the mother of all sunburns, being so bright red, but when the sound came out of my mouth, I knew something had gone terribly wrong. First and foremost, I was covered in bright red scales, I had these short, sharp claws at the end of my hands, on top of which my feet were utterly fucked up, and I had a tail.
I scrambled for my phone, wondering if it would even register my touch, Thankfully, it did.
You know those memes where someone takes a picture of an animal, and it looks really fucking funny? Guess whose first picture was like that. I turned on the camera, flipped the camera so I could see myself on the screen, and accidentally took a picture as my new snout filled the screen.
I tried to get up, but I realized that my clothes were too big, and that I had gone from a solid 6 feet and dropped to a measly three. Bear in mind, the average height of a person with dwarfism is a solid four, and I know this because I did an entire project on it in ninth grade.
I had no idea what the hell I was, if I was the only person like this, and I was forced to use my XL shirt to cover my otherwise naked body, tearing the shit out of it with my new feet claws, and being faced with the reality that being a three-foot lizard meant I had to crawl through my dog door.
Thankfully, Brutus didn't even seem phased, he just walked up to me, tail wagging, and very much wanting to be pet, which I did, very carefully. I needed something pure and wholesome in the world to keep me from going insane.
That was around six AM.
Now, googling 'Help, I've turned into a three foot lizard' didn't help at all, and I sure as shit didn't want to walk all of the way to my parent's house and potentially freak them out, but I did have my brother.
James is a furry, I'll just say it flat out. Like, an absolute turbo furry. It had taken me time to get used to the idea that he liked furry characters, and I knew a lot of the art he liked dealt with this kind of situation.
I was desperate, and I needed someone on my side. When I called him, it rang and then went to voicemail, and I proceeded to continuously call him, because he will eventually wake up. I got ready to call him again when a notification came up saying he wanted to FaceTime.
I braced myself for his inevitable squeeing when he saw I'd been transformed into a tiny little lizard.
I didn't expect him to be one as well.
Of course, he was the one who was fucking ecstatic, and it took me a lot of attempts to get him to listen to me, which he eventually did.
"Bro." I said, the words slipping out of my mouth weird. I had to carefully enunciate, moving a tongue that was completely alien to me inside of a mouth that didn't work the way I was used to. "What the thuck ith going on?" I asked. "Do you haff any idea what ith going on."
It was painful, really. Of course my brother spoke fluently. It didn't occur to me until he was halfway through his diatribe about TF triggers that I said, "Hey, wait, you're speaking another language." I paused. "I'm speaking another language!"
Like, it all translated into English for me, but we were very much speaking a language that was full of sibilants and yips, yaps, and naks.
"Oh, yeah. That's Yipyak." He said.
"What the fuck is a Yipyak, and if this is some sort of deez nuts joke, I'm going over there and clawing you."
So he explained that we were both Kobolds, creatures from Dungeons and Dragons, and our native language was Draconic, more specifically a pidgin language known as Yipyak.
"Alright, scholar of the Kobolds, what do we do about this situation, because people are going to freak out."
"Brother." He said. "There's no way in hell it's just us."
Part of me knew he was right, but I absolutely did not want to believe it.
Naturally, people gathered around the Town Hall.
The screaming started around eight AM, as people woke up to find themselves turned into Kobolds. Some of them were screaming in joy, others were as horrified as I was, but that wasn't the worst part.
Only half of us were Kobolds.
Mom and Dad picked us up, because they could reach the pedals. They were, of course, very concerned, but they helped us out because they loved us.
Most of the people who arrived who had been turned into Kobolds had to make due with shirts hiked up to their waists and tied off with a belt, the rest just stood around. Naked. There was one weirdo who just made a loincloth and was looking very proud of himself.
Weirdly enough, I actually kind of wanted one.
So, there we were, engaging in what was effectively a cultural exchange between the nerds and furries and the rest of us normal folk. Really, the only explanation as to how and why this happened was. "Fucked if we know, but it has knock-on implications for the rest of the universe."
The Humans- wow, that was a thought I just had, and not one I could just not have- The Humans were of course upset that this had happened and that our entire town was facing a crisis that we didn't know how to deal with.
But the furries had hypotheses.
First, the facts as we knew them. Exactly half of our population had been transformed. The only people who transformed were the D&D nerds and the furries, with the rest being directly related. The transformation only seemed to only effect family members in the same generation, which is why a husband and wife were Kobolds, but their kids weren't. Finally, there was nothing like this happening anywhere else in the world.
Therefore, the hypotheses were thus:
A. Some sort of wild magic surge triggered the transformation. And yes, magic was real because some of us could use it. Me included.
B. The D&D universe actually existed and was bleeding into reality. This excited the D&D players, because it meant they could go on an adventure.
C. There was a Dragon somewhere, maybe in the mine, and it wanted minions. Nobody liked this idea. Well, nobody said they liked it. I felt weirdly okay with it.
D. This was just Some Weird Shit, so let's just move on.
Naturally, someone leaked what happened, the government came, and, well, that's when we discovered that anyone entering the town limits had a roughly 50/50 chance of getting instantly turned into a Kobold. We also determined we could leave, but the way was blockaded because nobody wanted this to spread.
To the government's credit, they didn't take away our civil liberties to dissect us, they just showed up, brought scientists, and started trying to figure out what was going on.
The rest of us just had to adjust.
We couldn't really live in our own houses anymore, I mean, they're not even built for people with Dwarfism, it was even worse for us because we couldn't even reach the counter. So we just did the best we could. Some carpenters got together and started building houses that were proportional to our size. Kitchen appliances weren't going to be of any real help, so we just had to make due with houses that didn't have any electricity, but at least worked well with space heaters.
One of the best things about these houses was that they were quick to make and were easy to navigate. Some of the people built medieval-style housing, which I found myself increasingly attracted to as a place to live. Some of the D&D players were part of something called the Society of Creative Anachronism, and they hand made a lot of clothes that, for whatever reason, my stupid little Kobold brain liked, so here I was in a thatch-roofed house proportional to my size in medieval clothing that I could not fathom why I liked it.
In fact, I'm beginning to hate who I used to be.
The first sign that I was experiencing a dislike of my Human body was when I saw a picture of me and just got angry. Like, I smashed the frame against the floor and tore the thing to shreds before I got a hold of myself.
I catch myself only talking in Yipyak, and being annoyed when I have to switch to English. Not to mention, I've begun practicing magic. I can't explain how it works, I just know it works, it's helped me keep the place clean.
I know how to cast six of these spells, though, two of them exhaust me. The D&D nerds identified them as 'Prestidigitation, Mage Hand, Mending, Firebolt, Detect Magic, and Magic Missile.' Basically, the power do to a lot or really minor effects, the ability to create a magic hand that does whatever I want it to, the ability to fix some things, and the ability to throw fire at something- all at will. As well as the ability to see magic and the ability to throw magic at something that will always hit.
A lot of utility.
So with Detect Magic, I was able to determine that the town was surrounded in a cylindrical magic field, I actually took the time to help mark the border so people wouldn't accidentally become a Kobold. Other things I was able to figure out was that it was a '9th level' spell with Transmutation.
"Oh, that's Mass Polymorph! But that spell only effects ten creatures."
"Well, whatever it is, it's made a hell of a mess of things." I said.
Well, something came out of the mine earlier today, it was a giant fucking rat, and I used Magic Missile to kill it. I was halfway through skinning it when I realized I was skinning it, and that I had never skinned an animal before. I kept at it, and brought it to the warren.
The warren?
Yeah, that word fits.
I have these weird moments of self-awareness where I suddenly remember what life used to be like, and how much I had changed. How much the others changed. Some of them had changed their names , and I realized with a start that I didn't want my name anymore.
But there's another one that's just on the tip of my tongue.
Ruuk.
A Kobold came up to me, wanting some help with something. He said my old name and all I could say in response was, "My name is Ruuk."
He didn't even question it, and immediately started using it. I helped out with what he needed- he'd broken his hoe and needed it fixed, which I obliged.
It struck me, as we hit our first year of this, that I didn't want to go back to being a Human.

I've been seeing a lot of posts and comments on here and other Magrebi subs talking about how to "get out" of the country and live abroad. I grew up in a mixed household and had two Magrebi passports before I turned 18 and most people in my community have traveled, worked and some emigrated. Now I wanted to share what I have learned with this community in hopes of helping others who want to do the same.

Completing Secondary Education: The Journey Begins

When I completed my secondary education I became qualified to apply to America's Diversity Immigrant Visa Program which is by far the easiest way to emigrate. The application is free and you can reapply every year until you win. The only requirement is you have a passport and completed some form of post-secondary education.I was also attending University but I kept the necessary documents saved and placed an annual reminder on my calendar which told me reapply every year on October 5th when the application opens up. A few of my friends won while they were still completing their undergraduate degrees and transferred to American Universities. I had yet to win so I looked for more opportunities.

Graduating University: First Time Abroad

In my 4th year of University I began aggressively applying to jobs abroad. I applied to jobs all over the world but 90% of my applications were to positions in the Khaleej because they allow you to gain residency if you find employment and don't tax your income. This was important to me since my primary reason for seeking employment abroad was to make more money.From my experience the best platforms to apply for jobs are LinkedIn, Bayt.com and Stack Overflow if you're in tech. I eventually got a good job offer in the UAE and moved Dubai to start my new career. I opened a bank as soon as I had my National ID card so I wouldn't have to worry about the capital flight restrictions anymore.I also made the decision to live incredibly frugally because my goal was to pursue graduate studies in Canada (more on why later). I studied and took the TOFEL and IELTS exams since they are necessary for both education and immigration purposes. Meanwhile I kept applying to the American DV lottery since it would still be the fastest way to get permanent residency.

Graduate Studies: Moving to Canada

After about 2 years I had saved enough money to being studying in Canada. While education in Canada is not as expensive as the United States it is still very expensive so knowing where to apply is very important. From my research the following Universities offer the best tuition rates for international students:

1. Memorial University of Newfoundland
2. University of Manitoba
3. University of Regina
4. Simon Fraser University
5. University of Saskatchewan
6. University of Calgary
7. Dalhousie University

In addition to the low tuition costs they are also located in inexpensive cities which is as important.The reason I choose Canada as my destination for graduate studies is because after you complete a Master's degree in Canada, you are eligible for a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) which allows you to work in Canada for a duration equivalent to the length of your program (3 years max).I enrolled in my two year graduate program and began my graduate studies in Canada. I made sure to network during this time and attended every career fair regardless if it was for undergraduate student or graduate students. I kept my CV up to date and used LinkedIn strategically to network with hiring managers. Meanwhile I continued to apply to the American DV lottery.

Finishing Master Degree: Gaining PR in Canada

After graduating from my Master program I found a job and applied for the PGWP so I could remain in Canada. After a year of working in Canada I became eligible to gain permanent residency (PR) via the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) immigration program.The CEC makes it very easy for educated and skilled foreigners to gain PR in Canada. It's a point based program so the more "qualified" you are the easier it is for you to gain PR. There are many nuances to the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) but here are the main things the program looks for:

• Work Experience (Canadian experience preferred)
• Language Proficiency (IELTS scores)
• Education (Canadian education preferred)
• Age (Younger people preferred)

In general if you completed your education in Canada and worked in Canada then you are a very strong candidate for Canadian residency. This was my case so I gained permanent residency after being on a PGWP for about two years. I continued to apply to the American DV lottery the whole time.

Becoming Canadian Citizen: First Foreign Passport

After living in Canada for three years I became eligible to apply for Canadian citizenship. I gathered the necessary documents, completed Form CIT 0002 and paid the application fees. Later I completed a citizenship test which tests your knowledge of Canada's history, values, institutions, rights etc.. After passing the test I attended a Citizenship Ceremony and received my Certificate of Canadian Citizenship which allowed me to get my Canadian passport. By this time I had lived in Canada for 6 years and thought I would have lived here the rest of my life but something interesting happened: I won American DV lottery.

Moving To America: The Journey Continues

I had kept applying the the American DV lottery because I saw it as a form of insurance in case one of my applications was denied or if my immigration to Canada ran into issues. I was ready to stop since I finally had my Canadian citizenship but on May 6th I received notification that I won the DV lottery.Since I work in tech I feel the United States will be a better place for me to work and many of my Canadian colleagues had already move to the United States for higher paying jobs. I wasn't interested in going through the H1-B visa to PR process but now that I can skip ahead to the PR I'm going to go for it. I submitted all the necessary documents and once I have my Green Card I'll being applying to jobs in the United States. I'm really excited to see what the future has in store for me!

Final Thoughts

Like I said from the start my goal was to write about my journey to help people on here learn more about what opportunities are out there and show it's no that hard to "get out" if you really want. I would say my main takeaways are the following:

• Be Persistent. It took 6 years for me to gain my Canadian citizenship and 12 years to win the American DV lottery. If you aren't ready to keep trying then you shouldn't bother starting.
• Pursue Multiple Paths. If you want to go abroad you need to pursue multiple options at once because you never know which one will work out. Look for education opportunities, work opportunities and other opportunities like the American DV lottery.
• Education is King. The more educated you are the easier it is to move abroad. Completing your secondary education allows you to apply for the American DV lottery. The TOFEL and IELTS are necessary for graduate studies and PR applications. Canada's point based system favors more educated and skilled people so you will always have a way into Canada if you're educated and skilled.

If anyone would like more information I am happy to answer question and provide more information about my journey. I have tried to give as much information as possible while still maintaining some privacy so forgive me if I have been too cryptic. I hope this post helps!

Given Democrats’ all-out assault on traditional values and the American way of life, a single-minded focus on the economy—especially at the expense of major social and cultural issues at top of mind for many Americans—isn’t the winning strategy some Republicans might believe.
[...]
For much of the last year, no cultural issues have dominated the political airwaves more than the rise of Critical Race Theory (CRT) and gender ideology in K-12 education. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s victory last November [...] should serve as a clear sign for conservative candidates everywhere not to hide from the culture wars, but rather to embrace them.
- Seamus Brennan, May 12, 2022

Oftentimes, there are long political traditions that have been dead for years but continue shambling to the frontlines like reanimated corpses, only to be exposed as frauds. Politics doesn't listen to tradition. My favorite example of this is Professor Helmut Norpoth's Primary Model, which basically predicts Presidential elections based on who had the harder time in the primary.
Obviously, this model heavily favors incumbents, who are generally not challenged. It hedges by saying that an incumbent who is facing issues in the primary is in serious trouble. Indeed, it has a fair track record. When George H. W. Bush was rattled in the primary by Pat Buchanan, it was a sign that his tax increases would ultimately come back to bite him. Jimmy Carter's near-defeat to Ted Kennedy foreshadowed that liberals would ultimately defect to moderate Republican John Anderson.
The model gave Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning in 2020, and we all know how that turned out. Political realities change, and sometimes strong predictors for who is going to win are either incidental or outdated. Or both.
Let's keep in mind a tale of two midterms: in 2018 and in 2022, the incumbent President was unpopular and held a trifecta, having passed parts of his agenda but not others. Tradition dictated he was in for an ass-whooping in the midterm.
But the actual picture was far more complex. While Republicans lost the House in 2018 and the year is generally characterized as a blue wave, they actually gained in the Senate. Against all odds, too. Polls showed Missouri and Indiana as pretty close, even blue-leaning, races. Mississippi and Tennessee were supposed to be super competitive. But even as Democrats triumphed nationally, Republicans redoubled their totals with the base and even managed to gain in the Senate.
The Democrats' surprise 2022 overperformance was much more dramatic. Republicans, frankly, got whooped considering the circumstances. Every single incumbent Democrat Senator held on, and one seat, Pennsylvania, flipped despite polls giving Republican Mehmet Oz a lead going into election day. Democrats came very close to winning two seats they'd written off, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Lofty Republican ambitions in New Hampshire, Washington, and Colorado went up in smoke.
What's interesting about both of these elections is that there's one very important thing that doesn't make sense: the economy. Biden and Trump were both unpopular, but things were pretty good when Trump was President. In fact, with the exception of Bill Clinton, it's difficult to imagine any President that was dealt as good of a hand as Trump after World War Two. Under Trump, the economy was better than ever, and it remains the backbone of his electoral strength. Biden, meanwhile, had one of the more difficult terms in recent history. He broke several records when it came to disapproval, at one point being further in the toilet than his predecessor.
The Presidential elections were interesting, too. In 2016, President Obama was just generally popular and the economy was mostly on the right track. However, it was here that Donald Trump managed a huge overperformance that ultimately swept him to the Presidency. True, it is not unheard of for an incumbent party to fumble the ball and narrowly lose to an outsider (2000), but it's certainly rare. Then in 2020, when the country was at the most miserable and leaderless point in recent history, Trump overperformed again and nearly kept the Presidency.
So why did Trump overperform when Obama was popular, get whooped outside of his base when he was in charge and managing an economy most people were begrudgingly pleased with, and then noticeably overperform while having the worst hand of any incumbent since Herbert Hoover? And why did Biden, a well-known, establishment politician, underperform when all the stars had aligned for him but proved surprisingly resilient when everything was against him?
I think the answer is that it's really not about the economy anymore, or at least that the economy occupies a much smaller place in voters' minds than it used to. Another interpretation would be that the economy is now seen largely through a partisan lense-- by which I mean, the Democrats' (they're usually on the ass-end of economy questions these days) dissatisfaction with Biden's economy won't stop them from voting, and even if they are begrudgingly pleased with Trump's economy they'll still vote against him.
A consequence of this is that wave elections are over. In 2010, Obama had a trifecta and entered office with high expectations. However, key parts of his agenda flopped, and in the worst way possible. He managed to trigger the right while deflating his own base. In the 2010 midterms, the right turned out in full force, the left stayed home, and the center figured they weren't happy with the way things were so they might as well give the opposition a shot. Even states like Hawaii and Massachusetts saw breakout Republican success. This is basically the anatomy of a wave election before everything changed, thanks to Trump, and I doubt we're going back.
The matter is of particular importance because right now Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination. We will get the 2024 election nobody wanted-- a rematch.
In 2020, Trump held an absolutely terrible hand. He attracted withering criticism from many sides due to his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and conventional wisdom dictated that nice moderate Joe Biden would win just on virtue of that alone. The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic crash had theoretically robbed Trump of the one thing he could actually tout, and that was an America where he hadn't managed to break anything. The nice, unifying Joe Biden was supposed to sweep him away in an election that resembled 1980, 1992, or 1932. At the end of the day it looked quite a bit more like 1948. Trump ran a bitter, divisive, unpresidential campaign to the fiery end, rallying his base and throwing crude but workable talking points to the suburbanites. He was narrowly edged out after a week of vote-counting in a few key states.
The fact of the matter is, "cultural" issues and a healthy dose of partisanship have at least partially supplanted the economy. At least partially, Trump kept his strength with economy voters because it was impossible to blame him for the country closing down. In 2010, many voters might've abandoned President Obama because he hadn't brought the prosperity he'd promised. In 2020, many voters toughed it out with Trump because (for better or for worse) they were too partisan to blame him for the country's ills. Democrats were destined to do a lot better in 2022 than in 2010 just on this virtue alone. The public now sees not voting like letting cancer win because your doctor didn't cure it in time.
Similarly, culture issues are eclipsing the economy in importance. In 2018, the Trump Administration's shenanigans mostly dictated which way the country voted. Republicans enjoyed miniature waves in a lot of red states, and got absolutely buried in purple and blue states. Similarly, in 2022, when the main issues were Trump's ongoing attempts to subvert the electoral process and red states banning abortion, Democrats were surprisingly resilient. But in solid blue states where those concerns were distant, cultural issues like crime gave Republicans surprise gains. The most infamous was New York, but Republicans also took the House because of strength in states like California and Oregon.
I'm going to close this post by saying that we'll be entering 2024 with the roles basically reversed-- Biden will be the divisive, unpopular incumbent overseeing a shitty America. Trump will be the guy on the outside talking a big game with no real suggestions and banking on dissatisfaction winning out. I had friends tell me the Democrats' 2022 messaging was just January 6th and abortion, and the general expectation (myself included) was that nobody would care about Lake's open declarations that she would overturn the 2024 election if Biden won it, or that abortion really wouldn't weigh on the Wisconsin Republicans.
2024 will be a bitterly partisan race where people will indeed care. If the Republicans nominate Donald Trump, people will care. They will blow yet another perfectly winnable race and hand a desperately unpopular President another term.

https://discord.gg/8TS2s8Tx

I am looking to access a swimming pool/ beach for a day out at one of the hotels here in Kuwait. What are the best places and how much do they charge?

Soooo a couple of older relatives have told me that I’m “too into” my baby.
I (F 29), think they are bonkers… but I thought I would check in with you all. I’ve been warned by numerous ppl (some are childfree, some are parents), to not lose myself/ my identity as a new mom… and I’m wondering if that’s actually already started, and I’m just blissfully unaware LOL.
My LO is 20 weeks old this upcoming Wednesday btw.
I have been away from her a total of five times since her birth, each time for no more than five hours. Honestly, I find it difficult to leave my baby at all.
If I’m in the same room as her, I prefer to be the one holding her. Not because I don’t trust my family and friends! I just love interacting with her. (This feeling isn’t as strong if my husband, parents, brother, or grandma are the ones interacting with her).
I don’t crave any time away from her. Like at all. She doesn’t stress me out, I am not pining for my life prior to having her, and I genuinely love spending my time with my LO. (I don’t judge anyone who feels differently. This is just my experience).
I am currently a Stay-At home parent while I look for a new job that better fits mine and my family’s current needs. So I am around her constantly, and even though my husband is incredibly involved, I am our daughter’s primary caregiver. (I EBF, so that’s partly why).
Like I mentioned before, some folks have warned me about losing my identity.
I promise I don’t talk to folks about my baby unless ppl ask, and I’m not the kind to shove photos of her in ppls’ faces either. I still have interests and hobbies outside of being a mom, I just have little desire to pursue them right now.
I guess my mindset is that, time passes by very quickly and I want to absorb everything to the best of my ability. (I helped to raise my little bro and he’s about to turn 18 which is wild to me. I swear he was three years old yesterday). I also have a career in infant/child development, so part of me is always thinking about what may be best for her.
Anyways… sorry for the wall of text. Just curious if anyone feels similarly or is sensing some red flags in my behavior here. Thank you all!!

In July 2021, YouGov asked 3000 U.S. adult citizens to share their favorability on all 45 presidents. You can see the results here. They paint an interesting picture of how Americans perceive their presidents.
Now, what if we used those results to estimate how controversial each president is? I thought that would be a fun experiment, so I took some time to devise a formula that could give some kind of "controversy score" using the approval and disapproval ratings of a given subject.
The first task to define what "controversy" means and what a "controversy score" should represent. A common misconception is that "controversy" is more or less synonymous with "unpopularity", which is not true. Rather, "controversy" is the level of division around a subject; in more mathematical terms, the lack of difference between the approval and disapproval of that subject. In presidential terms, a president with 50% approval and 50% disapproval is a controversial president. A president with 100% disapproval is not, because everyone is in agreement about their negative opinion of him.
Though this is probably the initial approach for many, measuring controversy is unfortunately not as simple as measuring the difference between approval and disapproval. At first glance, this may seem like a good idea, with a 50-50 president (the most controversial) having a difference of 0 (the minimum possible output), and a 100-0 or 0-100 president (the least controversial) having a difference of 100 (the maximum possible output), and everyone else being somewhere in between. It would then be intuitive to rank the presidents by controversy score on a spectrum of 0 (most controversial) to 100 (least controversial).
But this only works when there are only approval and disapproval choices, which is not the case in our poll. The poll has six choices: "very favorable", "somewhat favorable", "somewhat unfavorable", "very unfavorable", "don't know", and "have not heard of them". Even if we combine the first two into "approve", and the next two into "disapprove", we are still left with two troublesome variables that substantially disrupt our math. If we stick to the plan of simply measuring the difference between approval and disapproval, and ignoring the other variables, we will find that a president who has 50% approval, 50% disapproval, and 0% "don't know" is just as controversial as a president who has 0% approval, 0% disapproval, and 100% "don't know", with both having differences of 0. This is obviously nonsense, so our formula needs to be adjusted.
It took some messing around and a good deal of research to find a formula that accounts for this. I ran into a lot of complicated statistical examples and explanations online, most of which went over my head. The simplest example I could find was C = (A*D)/A-D, where A is approval, D is disapproval, C is controversy score, 0 ≤ A ≤ 100, 0 ≤ D ≤ 100, and A + D ≤ 100. This seemed mostly alright, disregarding the risk of dividing by 0 if A and D were equal, which could be resolved with a slight adjustment to C = (A*D)/(A-D+1). This was a much better formula than the initial C = A-D.
From here, it was just a matter of controlling the range of outputs. C = (A*D)/(A-D+1) resulted in 0 ≤ C ≤ 2500, which was a bit too high of a range. I found by applying the results of that poll to this formula that the numbers got much more spread out as they got bigger, so I put the formula into a square root to curb this effect somewhat. C = sqrt((A*D)/(A-D+1)) returned 0 ≤ C ≤ 50, which was much better. To reduce the range to 0 ≤ C ≤ 10, I considered simply dividing the output by 5, but this resulted in C < 5 for all but 2 presidents. With some more tinkering, I found C = sqrt((0.4*A*D)/(A-D+10)), which also returns 0 ≤ C ≤ 10, to be more satisfactory.
To calculate the controversy score for these presidents, I put all their approval and disapproval ratings into a file called scores.txt, with each line having the format "N:A/D" where N is name, A is approval, D is disapproval, 0 ≤ A ≤ 100, 0 ≤ D ≤ 100, and A + D ≤ 100:

Washington:70/10 Adams:46/11 Jefferson:62/15 Madison:39/9 Monroe:29/12 JQA:44/9 Jackson:34/29 MVB:15/14 WHH:18/14 Tyler:14/14 Polk:16/17 Taylor:16/13 Fillmore:11/14 Pierce:15/15 Buchanan:15/21 Lincoln:80/9 Johnson:24/25 Grant:44/15 Hayes:18/15 Garfield:20/14 Arthur:13/13 Cleveland:21/18 Harrison:16/14 McKinley:18/15 TR:62/12 Taft:21/19 Wilson:32/25 Harding:15/23 Coolidge:24/19 Hoover:26/31 FDR:58/17 Truman:51/14 Eisenhower:58/11 JFK:73/14 LBJ:37/35 Nixon:27/57 Ford:41/30 Carter:45/32 Reagan:54/31 Bush Sr.:44/44 Clinton:45/42 Bush Jr.:43/43 Obama:54/41 Trump:39/54 Biden:47/44 

I then wrote a short C++ program that could read this file and output the controversy scores, in descending order, into a new file called results.txt:

#include  #include  #include  #include  #include  //written by u/xSiberianKhatru2 //rows in scores.txt must be in format "N:A/D", where N is name, A is approval, D is disapproval int main() { std::fstream f; std::vector> v; std::string s; f.open("scores.txt"); while(getline(f, s)){ std::pair p; p.first = s.substr(0, s.find(':')); double a = stof(s.substr(s.find(':') + 1, s.find('/'))); double d = stof(s.substr(s.find('/') + 1)); p.second = sqrt(0.4*a*d/(abs(a - d) + 10)); //will be between 0 and 10 v.push_back(p); } f.close(); //bubble sort *trollface* for(int i = 0; i < v.size() - 1; i++){ for(int j = 0; j < v.size() - i - 1; j++){ if(v[j].second < v[j + 1].second) swap(v[j], v[j + 1]); } } f.open("results.txt", std::fstream::out); for(int i = 0; i < v.size(); i++) f << i + 1 << std::fixed << std::setprecision(2) << ". " << v[i].first << " - " << v[i].second << std::endl; f.close(); return 0; } 

And this gave me the following ranking of controversy scores:

1. Bush Sr. - 8.80 2. Bush Jr. - 8.60 3. Biden - 7.98 4. Clinton - 7.63 5. LBJ - 6.57 6. Obama - 6.21 7. Trump - 5.80 8. Jackson - 5.13 9. Carter - 5.00 10. Ford - 4.84 11. Johnson - 4.67 12. Hoover - 4.64 13. Reagan - 4.50 14. Wilson - 4.34 15. Nixon - 3.92 16. Taft - 3.65 17. Coolidge - 3.49 18. Cleveland - 3.41 19. Polk - 3.14 20. Pierce - 3.00 21. Hayes - 2.88 22. McKinley - 2.88 23. Buchanan - 2.81 24. Tyler - 2.80 25. FDR - 2.78 26. Harding - 2.77 27. MVB - 2.76 28. Harrison - 2.73 29. WHH - 2.68 30. Garfield - 2.65 31. Grant - 2.60 32. Arthur - 2.60 33. Jefferson - 2.55 34. Taylor - 2.53 35. Truman - 2.47 36. JFK - 2.43 37. Monroe - 2.27 38. TR - 2.23 39. Fillmore - 2.18 40. Adams - 2.12 41. Eisenhower - 2.12 42. Washington - 2.00 43. Lincoln - 1.89 44. JQA - 1.88 45. Madison - 1.87 

This is a very interesting output, and I think there's a lot to be observed from it. The modern presidents are mostly at the top, the unknown ones are mostly in the middle, and the uniformly popular ones are mostly at the bottom, which seems about right. Most of the presidents are still C < 5; this makes sense, as most of the presidents had high "don't know" responses in the poll. Washington and Lincoln, the popular presidential giants, are comfortably near the bottom.
There are also a few problems. Few would agree that Bush Sr. is the most controversial president. This is because we don't just define controversy in terms of approval and disapproval; we put a lot of weight into how much a president gets discussed when deciding if he's controversial, something neither the poll nor our formula takes into account. The number of people who have heard of Bush Sr., and who have concrete opinions of him, is not terribly far from those who have heard of and have concrete opinions of Trump and Biden. But these opinions are generally quiet, and rarely the topic of heated arguments, something our formula doesn't take into account.
Despite these shortcomings, I think this was a fairly good effort at finding a measurable way to determine how controversial our presidents are. Of course, this formula can be applied to a lot more than just presidents, but I've left it at that for now.

Hello! I've been looking for some information on some fast and effective ways of cleaning Silicone molds and figured this would be the best place to ask. Apologies if it's not appropriate here.
Essentially, I have Silicone molds which I pour concrete into. Since my concrete is pigmented, I wash my molds in between batches. This also ensures that any debris left behind is cleaned up. I use Distilled water to wash them to not leave any salt residue.
The problem is that this can take a while, as I wash them each by hand and dry them with paper towels.
I have considered using an ultrasonic cleaner, however, I'm not sure of it's effectiveness, and it's a bit expensive. (for the larger ones) This would still require me to use paper towels to dry them but if it cuts down on the wash time at least it would help.
Does anyone have any advice or tips on how to improve the process of washing + drying of the molds? If you use an ultrasonic cleaner, is it effective?
And again, I recognize it's not about mold making, but I assume you guys would be the experts when it comes to caring for silicone molds.
Thanks!!